Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Basal Body Temperature (BBT)

Basal body temperature (BBT) is the lowest body temperature attained during rest (usually during sleep). It is usually estimated by a temperature measurement immediately after awakening and before any physical activity has been undertaken. This will lead to a somewhat higher value than the true BBT (see Fig. 1). For more accurate results, it is determined by using internally worn temperature loggers.[2] In women, ovulation causes an increase of one-half to one degree Fahrenheit (one-quarter to one-half degree Celsius) in BBT; monitoring of BBTs is one way of estimating the day of ovulation. The tendency of a woman to have lower temperatures before ovulation, and higher temperatures afterwards, is known as a biphasic pattern. Charting of this pattern may be used as a component of fertility awareness. The BBT of men is comparable to the BBT of women in their follicular phase.[3]

 Fig. 1 Diurnal variation in body temperature, ranging from about 37.5 °C from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m., and falling to about 36.4 °C from 2 a.m. to 6 a.m.



Fig. 2 Example of a basal body temperature chart. Menstruation begins on day 1. The rise in temperature between days 14 and 18 are the indication of ovulation. Temperature was taken orally with a regular fever thermometer. Temperature reading is very sensitive to breaks in the regular sleep-rhythm (e.g. "sleeping in" on day 25 )


Hormonal causes of biphasic patterns

The higher levels of estrogen present during the pre-ovulatory (follicular) phase of the menstrual cycle lower BBTs. The higher levels of progesterone released by the corpus luteum after ovulation raise BBTs. The rise in temperatures can most commonly be seen the day after ovulation, but this varies and BBTs can only be used to estimate ovulation within a three-day range.[4]
If pregnancy does not occur, the disintegration of the corpus luteum causes a drop in BBTs that roughly coincides with the onset of the next menstruation. If pregnancy does occur, the corpus luteum continues to function (and maintain high BBTs) for the first trimester of the pregnancy. After the first trimester, the woman's body temperature drops to her pre-ovulatory normal as the placenta takes over functions previously performed by the corpus luteum.
Very rarely, the corpus luteum may form a cyst. A corpus luteum cyst will cause BBTs to stay elevated and prevent menstruation from occurring until it resolves, which could take weeks or months.

While trying to conceive

Regular menstrual cycles are often taken as evidence that a woman is ovulating normally, and irregular cycles is evidence she is not. However, many women with irregular cycles do ovulate normally, and some with regular cycles are actually anovulatory or have a luteal phase defect. Records of basal body temperature can be used to accurately determine if a woman is ovulating, and if the length of the post-ovulatory (luteal) phase of her menstrual cycle is sufficient to sustain a pregnancy. Some fertility computers and software, such as Lady-Comp, can help a woman to determine these factors. The rise in basal temperature occurs 2–3 days after ovulation. Once it rises, an egg has been released.[5]
Pregnancy tests are not accurate until 2–3 weeks after ovulation. Knowing an estimated date of ovulation can prevent a woman from getting false negative results due to testing too early. Also, 18 consecutive days of elevated temperatures means a woman is almost certainly pregnant.[6]
Tracking basal body temperatures is a more accurate method of estimating gestational age than tracking menstrual periods.[7]

While avoiding pregnancy

Charting of basal body temperatures is used in some methods of fertility awareness, and may be used to determine the onset of post-ovulatory infertility. However, BBTs only show when ovulation has occurred; they do not predict ovulation. Normal sperm life is up to seven to ten days,[8] making prediction of ovulation several days in advance necessary for avoiding pregnancy.

Fig. 3 Menstrual cycle



Source from: Wikipedia


Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Ringgit Leads Asia Losses as 1MDB Woes Weigh on Nation's Assets

By Y-Sing Liau

September 28, 2015 — 4:47 PM MYT    Updated on September 28, 2015 — 5:21 PM MYT


  • Currency headed for biggest quarterly decline since 1997
  • Global funds sold net 1.3 billion ringgit of shares last week


The ringgit fell for a fifth day as new allegations against a Malaysian state investment company damped demand for the nation’s assets, just as capital is flowing out of emerging markets ahead of a potential U.S. interest-rate increase.

The currency weakened 0.9 percent to 4.4242 a dollar in Kuala Lumpur, after earlier declining to 4.4250, the lowest level since January 1998, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. It’s depreciated 15 percent since June 30, headed for the worst quarterly loss since 1997.

1Malaysia Development Bhd. is being probed by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation over money laundering, while the U.S. Justice Department is looking into property purchases associated with Prime Minister Najib Razak’s stepson, according to reports this month from the Wall Street Journal and New York Times. The articles added to woes for Najib after an investigation by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission found funds that appeared in his bank accounts were from political donations and not related to 1MDB.

“We have domestic issues that have yet to be resolved so that will continue to put pressure on the ringgit,” said Choong Yin Pheng, senior manager for bonds and economic research at Hong Leong Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. “There are concerns on the economic and political levels,” while data on Friday showing the U.S. economy expanded more than previously forecast boosted demand for the dollar, she said.

The central bank doesn’t target a specific level for the ringgit and the monetary authority wants to see the currency stabilize, Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz told reporters in Kuala Lumpur on Monday.

Malaysia’s benchmark stock index retreated 0.4 percent and government bonds fell. The 10-year yield climbed eight basis points to 4.44 percent, according to prices from Bursa Malaysia.

MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd. said in a report on Monday that global funds sold a net 1.3 billion ringgit ($294 million) of Malaysian shares last week. That took outflows in 2015 to 17.7 billion ringgit, surpassing the 6.9 billion ringgit for all of last year, the report said.


Source from : Bloomberg


Monday, September 28, 2015

厂商公会警示‧难顶三“重压” 企业掀裁员风

2015-09-28 07:18

(吉隆坡27日讯)在面对全球经济风暴威胁下,国内又出现令吉剧跌、人民信心不足及消费放缓的恶劣情况,已引发企业界掀起裁员风。

大马厂商及雇主联合会指出,国内三大“重压”不除,裁员的情况将会更恶劣。

他们警示,这一波裁员风才刚刚开始,政府、企业界及民间应作好应对准备。

大马厂商公会甚至建议,在艰辛时刻,雇员或应考虑接受减薪与雇主共渡难关。政府也应考虑降低雇员公积金缴纳率及暂停人力资源发展基金的缴纳。

“目前的局势必须改善,不容忽视。裁员是为了自保。”

虽然国内目前裁员情况还不见显著,不过数据显示,今年1月至7月,市场遭裁员工6547人,其中30%或近2000人来自石油及天然气工业。

在这批被裁退的员工中,还不包括马航和银行界数千名参与自愿遣散计划的员工。

大马雇主联合会执行董事拿督山苏丁接受《南洋商报》专访时说,目前裁员风才刚开始,如果局势不见改善,裁员情况会更恶劣。

他说,雇主所裁员列为“下下策”,除非真的到了走投无路局面,否则是不会选择裁员求存。
山苏丁说,国内失业率低于4%,不过三分之二待业人士为30岁以下年轻人,当中包括大学生。

他说,待业的大学生,再加上有待毕业的大学生,庞大的人数令人感到忧虑。

大马厂商联合会雪兰莪分会主席拿督苏添来认为,在内忧外患处境下,货币汇率持续下滑,国内消费不乐观,关乎人民的信心,所以重建信心为当务之急。

他向《南洋商报》说,政府应该马上通过各种措施,重建人民及投资者的信心。

他说,外国投资者需时消化对我国存在的负面印象,所以当局必须尽快采取实际行动,同时通过各种步骤,刺激国内消费及出口销售。

苏添来也是马来西亚钢铁工业联合会总会长,他说,马来西亚作为贸易国,令吉汇率偏低对国家不利,厂家从外国进口原料进行生产,成本大增。

他说,令吉失去优势,也影响外劳的收入,所以一些领域如建筑、棕油及制造业的外劳决定离开我国,导致这些行业人手短缺。

裁员问题不严重

他说,令吉汇率一直滑落,商家经商成本增加,国人也减少消费,所以形成产量过剩,商家大难临头。

“减低制造成本,减少依赖外国原料,所有能够做的,都已经做了,如果还是无法支撑下去,只好考虑裁员。

“目前裁员问题还不算严重,不过如果眼前一切不利因素没有消除,所引起的骨牌效应,会相当严重。”


Source from: Nanyang


Friday, September 25, 2015

Life Line Association Malaysia (马来西亚生命线协会)




Contact Details:
No. 1-3, 3rd Floor, Jalan Jelatek 1,
Pusat Perniagaan Jelatek, Setiawangsa,
54200 Kuala Lumpur.

7pm-10pm Mon-Fri
2pm-5pm Saturday 

Counseling Hotline: 03-4265 7995

Email: counseling@lifeline.org.my

Website: lifeline.org.my


Tuesday, September 22, 2015

DIY Chinese Knot Dragonfly

    I enjoy making hadicarf during my free time. These dragonflies are made using Nylon cord thread also known as Chinese knotting thread. I used 1 meter of thread for  making each dragonfly. These beautiful dragonflies can be used as keychain or mobile phone decorations.

    Here I also attached a video I found in YouTube on how to made the dragonfly. Anyone who is interested can try to make one.






Thursday, September 17, 2015

成本增亏损大‧遣散350人关厂 令吉贬值“逼死”台资

2015-09-17  07:43
独家报道:马规财


峇甲亚兰工业区的奂鑫电线制造厂经不起马币贬值的打击, 宣布关闭!



(双溪大年16日讯)在马币贬值的冲击下,许多制造厂商面对巨大的成本压力,经营25年的双溪大年台资电线制造厂奂鑫有限公司为了避免亏损扩大,无奈宣布关厂,遣散350多名员工。

在双溪大年有另外两家关系企业的奂鑫,日前宣布关闭位于峇甲亚兰工业区的奂鑫工厂。
据了解,总部设在新加坡的奂鑫是由于这几个月马币大幅贬值,造成业务严重亏损,不得已之下决定关厂。

著名OEM及ODM制造商

该公司董事徐明宏在受询时证实,已依照法律程序处理遣散员工事宜,但表示不便发言,未来如何必须等待总公司指示。

奂鑫(Huan Hsin)成立于1980年,创立初期以生产各式种类的电线为主要业务。经过多年来不断的努力与革新,已成为著名的OEM及ODM制造商,并且在新加坡上市。

该公司目前的主要产品为笔记本电脑外壳模块、电子书、卫星导航外壳、打印机、墨盒、笔记本电脑扩充座、LED灯等。

奂鑫公司在马来西亚及中国上海、苏州、常熟、山东、重庆等共拥有十家工厂,员工人数达到18000人。

除了关闭马来西亚其中一家员工350多人的工厂,也计划关闭其它无利可图的工厂。

陈俊男:马币贬值所累 吉打48台商苦撑

吉打州台湾商会会长陈俊男表示,其实不止奂鑫承受马币贬值的压力,吉打州48家台湾厂商都被马币贬值及政局不明朗所累,很多厂商可以说是在苦撑,等待“柳暗花明又一村”。

希望锁定汇率

不过,由于有些台商是从日本进口原料,日元贬值的幅度与马币不相上下,因此打击没有这么大。

据陈俊男透露,目前在马投资的台商约有1750家,多从台湾购置机器设备、原物料及关键零组件,制成成品回销台湾或欧美,造成“投资带动贸易效果”,对我国的经济贡献良多。

但他说,大马政策朝令夕改,行政效率有待改进及治安恶化,造成台商的经营成本增加,如今再面对马币贬值及美元高涨的问题,结束营业实在是不得已的选择。

他希望我国政府可以考虑1998年敦马哈迪医生时代的“固定汇率”
措施,把马币兑美元定在一个合理的价位,让商家减少马币汇率的冲击,方便厂商计算成本,才能持续地经营下去。

飞兆也关工厂

较早前,另一家外资厂商飞兆(Fairchild)也关闭位于槟城州峇六拜的工厂,遣散1000名员工。

据消息来源透露,若经营环境没有改善,分布在吉隆坡、雪兰莪、槟城、森美兰、柔佛、马六甲、霹雳、吉打及沙巴的外资厂商,很可能也相继面对“关厂”的命运!


Source from: 南洋网


Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Minerals, Metals Elements, Noble Gases / 礦物質, 金屬元素, 稀有气体

巨量礦物質 / Macro Minerals

元素
Elements
符號 / Symbol
(gài)
calcium
Ca
(lǜ)
chlorine
Cl
(mĕi)
magnesium
Mg
(lín)
phosphorus
P
(jiă)
potassium
K
(nà)
sodium
Na
(liú)
sulfur
S


微量礦物質 / Trace Minerals 

元素
Elements
符號 / Symbol
(gè)
chromium
Cr
(gŭ)
cobalt
Co
(tóng)
copper
Cu
(fú)
fluorine
F
(diăn)
iodine
I
(tiĕ)
iron
Fe
(mĕng)
manganese
Mn
(mù)
molybdenum
Mo
(xī)
selenium
Se
(xīn)
zinc
Zn


其他礦物質 / Other Minerals

元素
Elements
符號 / Symbol
(bì)
bismuth
Bi
(péng)
boron
B
(niè)
nickel
Ni
(rú)
rubidium
Rb
(guī) /
silicon
Si
(sī)
strontium
Sr
(dì)
tellurium
Te
(tài)
titanium
Ti
(wū)
tungsten
W
(fán)
vanadium
V


非金属元素和稀有气体/ Non-Metal Elements and Noble gases 

元素
Elements
符號 / Symbol
(qīng)
hydrogen
H
(péng)
boron
B
(tàn)
carbon
C
(dàn)
nitrogen
N
(yăng)
oxygen
O
(fú)
flourine
F
(guī) /
silicon
Si
(lín)
phosphorus
P
(liú)
sulfur
S
(lǜ)
chlorine
Cl
(shēn)
arsenium
As
(xī)
selenium
Se
(xiù)
bromine
Br
(dì)
tellurium
Te
(diăn)
iodine
I
(ài)
astatine
At
(hài)
helium
He
(năi)
neon
Ne
(yà)
argon
Ar
(kè)
krypton
Kr
(xiān)
xenon
Xe
(dōng)
radon
Rn


金屬元素 Metal Elements

元素
Elements
符號 / Symbol
(jīn)
gold
Au
(yín)
silver
Ag
(tóng)
copper
Cu
(tiĕ)
iron
Fe
(lǚ)
aluminium
Al
(xīn)
zinc
Zn
(tī)
antimony
Sb
(xī)
tin
Sn
(qiān)
lead
Pb
(gŏng)
mercury
Hg
(gè)
chromium
Cr
(shì)
cerium
Ce
(bì)
bismult
Bi
() / (ní)
niobium
Nb
(niè)
nickel
Ni
(bó)
platinum
Pt
(bă)
palladium
Pd
(mù)
molybdenum
Mo
(lăo)
rhodium
Rh
(tā)
thallium
Tl
(yī)
tridium
Tr
(yóu)
uranium
U
(wū)
tungsten
W
(tăn)
tantalum
Ta
(tài)
titanium
Ti
(dì)
tellurium
Te
(tŭ)
thorium
Th
(fán)
vandanium
V
(bèi)
barium
Ba
(mĕng)
manganese
Mn
(yĭ)
yttrium
Y
(yīn)
indium
In
(gé)
cadmium
Cd
(zhĕ)
germanium
Ge
(gŭ)
cobalt
Co
(hào)
zirconium
Zr
(xī)
selenium
Se
(sè)
cesium
Cs
(gài)
calcium
Ca
(guī) /
silicon
Si
(nà)
sodium
Na
(pí)
beryllium
Be
(mĕi)
magnesium
Mg
(lĭ)
lithium
Li





Monday, September 14, 2015

Malaysia pumps $4.6bn into stock market

47 minutes ago    Business

The ringgit is one of the worst performing currencies in Asia this year, losing nearly 20% of its value against the dollar


The Malaysian government is spending 20bn ringgit ($4.6bn; £3bn) on boosting shares and is cutting taxes for manufacturers.

Malaysia has seen the ringgit lose 20% of its value against the dollar this year and a 9% fall in its stock market.

The announcement had a modest impact on share values with the Kuala Lumpur composite index up 0.6% to 1,612.52.

The country's economy has suffered because of falling prices for its commodity exports.

Its position worsened two months ago after its prime minister Najib Razak was involved in a political scandal.

The prime minister said state investment firm ValueCap will invest in undervalued companies and firms in the manufacturing sector would be exempt from import duties until the economy is back on track.

Slowing demand from China, falling commodity prices and a strengthening US dollar has pushed the ringgit to near 18-year lows.

The economy has also been affected by growing political tensions on reports that investigators are probing debt-laden state investment firm 1MDB for depositing close to $700m into an account owned by Mr Najib.

The prime minister is the chairman of the firm's board and has denied doing anything wrong.

Will it work?

But Evan Lucas, market strategist from trading firm IG said the problem with the government injecting money into the stock market is that the market soaks up the capital in a short period of time.

"Although there might be an initial bounce in equities, the funding is unlikely to address the underlying issue of the Malaysian economy and stocks will still be sold off on that fact," he told the BBC.

"The Chinese markets are a clear example of what happens when 'stability funding' is used to try and shore up equity."

The money would probably better be used in addressing direct issues with the economy, he added, saying support for consumer energy could be needed.



Source from : BBC News

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Oil sector 'has lost 65,000 jobs'

9 September 2015   Scotland business

The contraction of Britain's offshore oil sector has already stripped out 65,000 jobs, according to a new report.


The calculation of a 15% drop since the start of last year came from the annual economic impact report of trade body Oil and Gas UK.

It said the number of jobs supported by direct, supply chain and indirect employment had fallen from 440,000 to 375,000.

The cuts came as operating expenditure on existing assets was slashed.

About £800m (8%) of costs have been cut this year and a further £1.3bn (14%) is planned for next year.

Some large fields are coming on-stream, so those cuts will be offset by more than £1bn per year being spent on operating them.

Improving efficiency

The report said cost-cutting could be expected to be the focus of industry activity for the first nine months of this reaction to lower prices.

After that, it should move on to improving efficiency and then transforming the industry over three years. Those processes could lead to further job losses.

The Oil and Gas UK calculation of job losses is based on a 15% reduction in the direct employees of the offshore industry, down by 5,500 from the official estimate in 2013 of 36,600.

The wider impact follows from applying that scale of cut to the supply chain and those who depend, in turn, on those companies' and workers' spending.

The industry is responding to revenues falling by 20% last year, and another 30% this year.

Analysis by Douglas Fraser, Scotland business and economy editor

Offshore oil and gas has previously used the vast scale of its Offshore Europe event in Aberdeen to showcase how big and bold it is.

This week: not so much. The industry is hunkered down, counting the cost of contraction.

There are still riches to be made from exporting, and Aberdeen is doing that well. But in the UK sector, one insider told me that quite a few companies are "simply waiting to be bought". There's nowhere else to go.


Every week brings more redundancies. Last week was Expro. This week, ConocoPhillips put us on stand-by for more bad news on that front, thought most of it in North America.

More from Douglas Fraser's blog

While the oil price has fallen from $115 (£75) last summer to below $43 (£28) last week, the mature North Sea industry has also been facing the challenges of older fields with higher costs and declining production. It has been pushing hard to get costs down.

That effort is aimed at cutting the operational cost of extracting an average barrel of oil, or its gas equivalent, from £17.80 to about £15 by the end of next year. So far, that measure has fallen to £17.

Challenging times

Capital expenditure, which peaked at £14.8bn last year, is expected to fall to £11bn this year, much of that large projects which had already begun. After that, it could fall by between £2bn and £4bn in the next three years.

With new fields coming on-stream, total production is expected to rise this year for the first time since 2000. The first half of this year has seen a rise of 3%.


Deirdre Michie, chief executive of Oil and Gas UK, said: "This great industry of ours is facing very challenging times.

"Last year, more was spent than was earned from production, a situation which has been exacerbated by the continued fall in commodity prices. This is not sustainable and investors are hard-pressed to commit investment here because of cash constraints.

"Difficult decisions have had to be made across the industry. It is likely that capacity may have to be reduced still further in order for the business to weather the downturn.

"The industry is under a lot of pressure and it is now widely recognised that a transformation in the way business is done is required if the UK sector is to become more resilient and competitive in a world of sustained lower oil prices".

Ms Michie added that a continued low oil price will inevitably force companies to consider the viability of their offshore assets, and that there was a need for further "lightening" of the tax regime, to encourage further investment in the sector.

Scottish Energy Minister Fergus Ewing said: "This report demonstrates that a number of opportunities remain across the Scottish oil and gas industry, even though it continues to face challenges.

"It is encouraging to see the industry is making good progress on cutting operating costs and increasing efficiency, both of which are vital to increase competitiveness. With the correct policy framework, and continued action to improve efficiency, the sector can thrive for many decades to come.

"In order to achieve this, it is vital that the Oil and Gas Authority continues to drive forward the reform and collaboration required to maximise economic recovery. It is also imperative that the UK government makes good on its commitment to introduce further measures to support exploration and maintain critical infrastructure."


Source from : BBC News


Monday, September 7, 2015

Ringgit Falls to New 1998 Low as Asia Selloff Sends KLCI Lower

By Elffie Chew

September 7, 2015 — 9:14 AM MYT  Updated on September 7, 2015 — 11:13 AM MYT

Malaysia’s ringgit dropped to a new 1998 low and stocks fell as sentiment continues to sour for emerging-market assets amid slowing Chinese growth and prospects for a U.S. interest-rate increase.

The ringgit came under renewed pressure on Monday from a decline in Brent crude and the narrowing in the oil-exporter’s trade surplus. Data on Friday showed a mixed picture of the U.S. jobs market, which is key for determining when the Federal Reserve will tighten policy. While the unemployment rate fell to a seven-year low, non-farm payrolls numbers missed estimates. Higher U.S. borrowing costs may spur more capital outflows from developing nations, just as China’s slowing economy curbs risk appetite.

“The ringgit is lower because of the stronger dollar following Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls print alongside lower oil prices,” said Khoon Goh, a Singapore-based strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “Malaysia’s lower-than-expected trade balance may also be raising some concerns over the current-account position.”

The ringgit weakened 1.1 percent to 4.3043 a dollar as of 10:54 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. It earlier fell to 4.3100, the lowest level since January 1998 when it reached a record 4.8850. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI index of shares lost 1 percent.

Malaysia Rates

The currency dropped for an 11th straight week through Sept. 4, the longest stretch of losses since 1993. The trade surplus shrank to 2.38 billion ringgit ($553 million) in July from a year earlier, official data showed on Friday. That was less than June’s 7.98 billion ringgit and the 6.3 billion ringgit forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

A 0.2 percent increase in the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves to $94.7 billion in the last two weeks of August failed to bring any reprieve for the ringgit. The holdings were at $94.5 billion in the previous two weeks, the lowest level since 2009, and a signal the central bank may have been intervening to stem a slide in this year’s worst-performing Asian currency.

The falling reserves are a constraint on how much the authorities can intervene to support the ringgit, said Sim Moh Siong, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Singapore Ltd. in the city-state. “China’s growth fears and Fed rate lift-off concerns are to blame for emerging currencies’ weakness.”

Malaysia’s central bank meets at the end of this week and eight of nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict no change in the benchmark interest rate from 3.25 percent. One expects a 25 basis-point increase.

Fed Odds

While U.S. non-farm payrolls climbed 173,000 in August and were less than the 217,000 forecast in a Bloomberg survey, the previous month’s figure was revised higher to 245,000. Futures still aren’t giving an overwhelming prediction for the first Fed rate hike. The odds for a move at the September meeting are 30 percent, 43 percent in October and 58 percent for December.

Malaysia’s 2017 government bonds declined, with the yield rising 10 basis points to 3.44 percent, according to prices from Bursa Malaysia. The 10-year yield fell one basis point to 4.20 percent.


Source from : Bloomberg


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Friday, September 4, 2015

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消費稅+令吉貶 零售業猛跌12%

財經   3 Sep 2015  17:45


(吉隆坡3日訊)消費稅落實與令吉猛貶打擊消費意願,零售業慘凄凄,次季銷售業績大跌11.9%,為1998年亞洲金融危機以來最糟糕的季度表現!

 大馬零售集團(MRA)說,許多連鎖零售商店開始鞏固與縮小業務,不少零售商因一些分店生意慘淡而關門大吉。零售商通過給予誘人折價優惠來吸引更多消費者,賺幅卻受打擊。

 根據大馬零售集團發出的文告,零售業次季表現令人非常失望,實際表現遠遜于6月份預期的萎縮3%,猛縮11.9%。

 消費稅落實影響所有零售業次領域,包括雜貨零售商、服裝、玩具、禮品、手機、家具及電子與電器產品等行業,許多零售商生意跌幅介于20%至50%。

 “在今年次季,消費者暫不花費以觀察價格變動,他們也在等待零售商給予促銷。另外,消費稅混亂的資訊也是造成銷量下跌的主要原因,像是餐飲業服務費和電話儲值卡,在最后1分鐘才宣布豁免。不同政府單位給予的資訊都不同,消費者覺得很混亂,故決定延遲購買。”

 大馬零售集團指出,齋戒月首兩個星期銷量減少,直至齋戒月最后兩週才開始增長,但銷量不如去年。

接下來不會更好

消費稅影響未消退,7月份至9月份零售業銷售預計不會強勁復甦,大馬零售集團會員悲觀預測,第3季度銷量僅取得0.1%增長,近乎零成長。

 “我們旗下會員估計第3季銷量成長僅為0.1%,但大馬零售集團預測會較樂觀,預計會有2.5%成長。至于末季預測則從6.9%下調至6%成長。”

 百貨超市業次季零售額按年下跌12%,第3季預計仍維持負成長,跌3.6%。經過首季短暫復甦后,百貨商場次季業績挫15.8%,估計未來3個月為7.3%負成長。

 此外,超級市場以及高級百貨商店的次季成長率為負0.7%,服裝業為跌9.4%;估計這2個次領域能在第3季復甦,分別成長4.3%和1.1%。

 “其他零售業如相機產品與服務、體育用品、健康用品與玩具業持續首季負成長,次季進一步下挫19.4%。希望第3季得以強勁復甦,取得2%增長。”

政局間接影響消費意願

大馬政治局勢的發展對零售業的影響是間接性的,近期政治問題影響消費意願和購買情緒,以致消費者減少購買。

 “令吉疲軟導致進口成本提高,影響商品成本,高進口成本將影響所有零售領域,包括雜貨店、餐廳和服裝店等。零售價格在末季也會出現明顯增長,到時候,消費者購買力可能會進一步下降。”

 大馬零售集團第4次下調全年成長預測,從4%再下調至3.1%。

大馬零售業與次領域銷售額成長(%)
項目                                           首季          次季      第3季預測
整體零售業                                4.6            -11.9        0.1
百貨超市業                                14.7          -12.0        -3.6
百貨商場                                    7.9            -15.8        -7.3
超級市場以及高級百貨商店    5.1            -0.7          4.3
服裝業                                        4.5            -9.4          1.1
家具和電子與電器產                24.5           無            無
其他                                           -7.8           -19.4          2
註:取自大馬零售集團



Source from: Chinapress